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Главная arrow Статьи arrow GLOBALIZATION SHUFFLES CARDS OF THE WORLD PACK: IN WHICH DIRECTION IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC-POLITICAL
GLOBALIZATION SHUFFLES CARDS OF THE WORLD PACK: IN WHICH DIRECTION IS THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC-POLITICAL Версия в формате PDF 
Написал AK   
18.12.2014
World Futures, 70: 515–545, 2014
Copyright C  Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 0260-4027 print / 1556-1844 online
DOI: 10.1080/02604027.2014.982474
 

GLOBALIZATION SHUFFLES CARDS OF THE WORLD
PACK: IN WHICH DIRECTION IS THE GLOBAL
ECONOMIC-POLITICAL BALANCE SHIFTING?

 
LEONID GRININ AND ANDREY KOROTAYEV
National Research University, Moscow, Russia
 
 
 
The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development
of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed
toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing
countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates
that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization
that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than
the developed states, the World System core starts weakening and its periphery
begins to strengthen. At the same time there is a continuing divergence between
the main bulk of developing countries and the group of the poorest developing
states. The article also explains why the globalization was bound to lead to the
explosive rise of many developing countries and the relative weakening of the
developed economies. In the forthcoming decades this trend is likely to continue
(although, of course, not without certain interruptions). It is also demonstrated
that this convergence constitutes a necessary condition for the next technological
breakthrough. This has important implications for the hegemony debates. A
rather popular theory of hegemony cycles implies that the eclipse of the global
hegemony of the United States should be followed by the emergence of a new
global hegemon. This generates the dichotomy of the two main current points of
view—either the United States will continue the global leadership in the forthcoming
decades, or it will be replaced by China in this capacity. We do not find
the study of the future within this dichotomy fruitful. We believe that in a direct
connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cycle
pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to theWorld System reconfiguration
and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System
to continue its further development without a hegemon.
 
A rather popular theory of hegemony cycles implies that the eclipse of the global
hegemony of the United States should be followed by the emergence of a new
global hegemon. This generates the dichotomy of the two main current points of
view—either the United States will continue the global leadership in the forthcoming
decades, or it will be replaced by China in this capacity. We do not find
the study of the future within this dichotomy fruitful. We believe that in a direct
connection with the development of globalization processes the hegemony cycle
pattern is likely to come to its end, which will lead to the World System reconfiguration
and the emergence of its new structure that will allow the World System
to continue its further development without a hegemon.
 
DECLINE OF THE LEADERSHIP OF THE UNITED STATES
AND THE WEST
 
The discussions of an inevitable eclipse of American might began already in
the 1970s when this country confronted simultaneously political, economic, and
currency crises. In the 1970s and the 1980s a number of forecasts appeared that
predicted that the United States would be replaced by Japan in the role of the
world economic leader (Vogel 1979; Kennedy 1987; Attali 1991). However, a
new vigorous technological wave in the United States (that took place against the
background of the economic stagnation in Japan) demonstrated the fallacy of such
views. U.S. hegemony did not only turn out to be rather solid; what is more, it
rose to a new level as a result of disintegration of the Communist block and the
U.S.S.R.
 
However, these were just the 1990s when the number of forecasts predicting
the inevitable decline of the American hegemony and the ascent of Asia to
the leadership positions started growing rather rapidly (Thompson 1988; Attali
1991; Colson and Eckerd 1991; Frank 1998; Todd 2003; Wallerstein 1987, 2003;
Kupchan 2002). At first such forecasts were taken rather skeptically, or were
received as a sort of expression of leftist views and anti-American moods. However,
with the growth of negative tendencies in the United States and successes of
Asian countries the idea of the American decline started looking more and more
grounded, which provoked (depending on one’s orientation) feelings of triumph
or apprehension. Nowadays, taking into account the consequences of the global
crises, the forecasts of the decline of the U.S. role in the world appear to be shared
by the overwhelming majority of analysts. The United States seems to have started
putting upwith the idea of the decline of the American hegemony—although many
still seem to pin their hopes on some sort of technological or other miracle that
will revive the American might (this is often expressed rather vividly in President
Obama’s speeches).  
 

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