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EXPLOSIVE POPULATION GROWTH IN TROPICAL AFRICA Версия в формате PDF 
Написал Administrator   
22.04.2014

World Futures, 70: 120–139, 2014
Copyright C  Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 0260-4027 print / 1556-1844 online
DOI: 10.1080/02604027.2014.894868

 

 

A family planning placard in Ethiopia. It shows some negative effects of having too many children.

EXPLOSIVE POPULATION GROWTH IN TROPICAL AFRICA:

CRUCIAL OMISSION IN DEVELOPMENT
FORECASTS—EMERGING RISKS

AND WAY OUT

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JULIA ZINKINA
International Laboratory of Political Demography, Russian Presidential Academy
of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia; Institute of Oriental
Studies and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

ANDREY KOROTAYEV
International Laboratory of Political Demography, Russian Presidential Academy
of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia; Institute of Oriental
Studies and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; Faculty of Global Studies, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

 

ABSTRACT

 

Our article draws attention to a crucial factor frequently omitted from the global
development agenda, namely the explosive population growth inevitably expected
in Tropical Africa in the nearest decades as a result of the region’s laggardness in
fertility transition. Population doubling (or even tripling) in the next decades can
seriously undermine the development prospects of Tropical African countries
and lead to sociopolitical destabilization or even large-scale violent conflicts
with possibly global consequences. Bringing down the population growth rates
(mainly through substantially reducing the fertility rates) appears to be crucial
for the achievement of the 1977 “Goals for Mankind,” as well as the Millennium
Development Goals, and, as we proceed to show, can be most effectively achieved
through substantially increasing female secondary education, which, in turn,
should be achieved by introducing compulsory secondary education and making
it the first-rate development priority.

 

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INTRODUCTION

The seminal approach to global development that we pursue in this article was
proposed by Ervin Laszlo and his team and laid out in the fifth report to the
Club of Rome, “Goals for Mankind,” in 1977. The tenets of the approach were

reflected in several global goals, including security (reducing the possibility of
international conflicts and wars); elimination of starvation, mainly through raising
the productivity of labor in agriculture; orientating the development goals towards
satisfying the needs of humans; not maximizing the economic growth; and so on.
More than 35 years later, it appears acutely necessary to re-establish these tenets
in the African development agenda. In this article we will proceed to show how
the omission of the extremely important factor of population growth (Forrester
1971; Laszlo 2003) from the development priorities may seriously undermine
the Tropical African prospects of achieving the “security” and “elimination of
starvation” global goals in the forthcoming decades. Indeed, a nearly decade-long
fertility stall at levels higher than 5 children per woman has had a tremendous
impact on the expected population increase in Tropical African countries. We
reveal how this fact can significantly enhance the probability of violent conflicts
(judging from the practical experience of the recent African past as well as from
theoretical grounds [Goldstone 1991, 2002; Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006;
Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006b;Korotayev et al. 2011]) and undermine
all the recent economic achievements when it comes to eliminating starvation and
undernourishment.
In order for the goals in Laszlo et al.’s 1977 paradigm to be finally achieved
in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it is necessary to secure substantial fertility decline
acceleration in SSA in the nearest future. Basing on the research indicating that
secondary education is the most important fertility-inhibiting factor in the region,
we propose a model to evaluate the possible effect of various scenarios of increasing
the net secondary enrollment upon fertility and infer some policy implications
from the modeling results.

 

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EXPLOSIVE POPULATION GROWTH PROSPECTS IN AFRICA:
CAUSES, CONSEQUENCES, AND OMISSION
FROM THE DEVELOPMENT AGENDA
Unprecedented population growthwas specified among themajor global processes
exerting crucial influence on world development by Jay Forrester (1971) and
have attracted considerable scholarly attention ever since. However, by the early
1990s the global community had become well aware of the fact that almost all
developing regions were far advanced in terms of fertility decline, and that even in
SSA, the most demographically laggard region, most countries had finally entered
the fertility transition and had their fertility rates declining as well. Moreover,
a widespread opinion prevailed that having once started, fertility decline would
proceed rapidly and uninterruptedly until fertility reached the replacement level of
2.1 children per woman. Thus, UN experts forecasted the Sub-Saharan population
to become stable at relatively safe levels, and the international community therefore
became more or less “calmed down,” shifting the focus of attention from the
population growth and the necessity of bringing down fertility to other major
issues. The shift already was visible at the 1994 International Conference on
Population and Development in Cairo, where the widespread slogan “Development

is the best contraceptive” was reflected in priority change from family planning
programs to development-related agenda, such as combating infectious diseases
and HIV, decreasing infant and maternal mortality, promoting gender equality, and
so on. Later on, these and other development-related priorities (such as securing
universal primary education, eradicating extreme poverty, etc.) were reflected in
Millennium Development Goals.
However, the exclusion of population growth deceleration from the top priorities
of international development agenda appears now to have been quite premature.
In the late 1990s and the early 2000s the fertility decline in many Tropical
African countries experienced a large-scale stall, mostly at very high rates exceeding
5 children per woman.
This near decade-long failure to proceed with fertility decline is bound to have
truly dramatic consequences for Sub-Saharan population growth—according to
the latest medium forecast by the UN Population Division (2013), the population
of such relatively modest East African countries as Kenya and Uganda will strike
150 million in the second half of the century (i.e., it will exceed the present-day
population of Russia). Tanzania will reach the same number already by 2050 and
is supposed to accommodate 300 million people by 2100. The case of Malawi is
particularly astonishing, as according to the UN medium forecast it is supposed
to accommodate about 150 million people on a territory of about 100,000 sq
km (half of the current U.S. population on the territory of Nevada) in 2100.
Equally astonishing is the projection for Nigeria: if its fertility does not fall
even more rapidly than in the UN medium projection, its population will exceed
the total population of all of Europe (including Russia) by the end of the century.
Altogether, nine Sub-Saharan countries are projected to have populations in excess
of 100 million each by 2100. The three landlocked Sahel nations of Niger, Mali,
and Burkina Faso are projected to grow from a combined population of 47 million
in 2010 to over 300 million by the century’s end. It is hard to see how the countries
in the region can avoid major social and political disturbances or even collapses if
this explosive population growth is not curbed.
Thus, the decade-long fertility stall will “cost” many Tropical African countries
tens of millions of “additional” population increase, which thus turns to be truly
explosive in the nearest decades. However, even these ominous figures are not
inertial—the UN medium scenario implies a significant acceleration of fertility
decline in the Tropical African countries; in order to achieve that, large-scale
effective measures should be urgently taken. Nevertheless, the global community
still has not recognized the reappearance of the threat of sociopolitical catastrophes
in SSA if rapid fertility decline does not resume very soon.

 

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1. Написал(а) Стеклов Юрий в 17:45 30 апреля 2014 г. - Зарегистрированный
 
 
Очень хорошая статья, на отличном научном и языковом уровне. (так мне кажется: английский не мой родной язык). Итак, выводы понятны: необходимы и достаточны среднее образование(хотя бы неполное),с 14-15лет,прежде всего для девочек и меры по планированию семьи. И всё это надо делать срочно, на государственном уровне и поставить на место гос.приоритетов.  
Не очень я верю, что это возможно в том масштабе, чтобы за пару десятилетий довести средний уровень фертильности до 2,13.((( Оказывается,время уже упущено? А я-то уже обрадовался: в русскоязычных СМИ и блогосфере консервативные публицисты обвиняют западных миллиардеров, что под видом помощи Африке они осуществляют широкомасштабную котрацепцию. Ан нет, -не похоже что-то... Вы написали, что среднее образование должно быть обязательным. Правильно. Но из политкорректности,видимо, вы не упомянули, что и контрацепция д.б. ОБЯЗАТЕЛЬНОЙ. Не только пропаганда. Не думаю, что африканские пр-ва более щепетильны в отношении прав человека, чем КНР или Иран и т.п. Правда, средств и власти у африканцев поменьше, а коррупции- побольше. И, упомянув Римский Клуб, вы не упомянули самый первый Доклад и основанную на его данных книгу \"Limits to Growth\". Там,понятно, не только о перенаселении речь идёт.Эта книга с 1972г(!) ТРИ раза переиздавалась (и на русском языке), и каждое десятилетие -с учётом всё более усовершенствованных методик, компьютеров и более полных данных- показывало, что положение ухудшается. Как я понял, на 4-е переиздание,в 2012, Деннис Медоуз махнул рукой... 
В общем, спасибо за статью. Успехов вам и процветания.
 

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