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Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Chapter 1 Версия в формате PDF 
Написал Administrator   
25.10.2011
 
Cover. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D.   Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D.
Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends.
Moscow: URSS, 2006. 176 pp.

OTHER BOOKS BY THESE AUTHORS:
History and mathematics: Analyzing and Modeling Global Development
History and mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies.
Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Ancient and Medieval Cultures.
Hierarchy and Power in the History of Civilizations: Political Aspects of Modernity.
The Early State, Its Alternatives and Analogues.
Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.


We also recommend "Social Evolution & History". International journal published since 2002.

 
 

Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth at Google Books

Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends.


 

Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth at Google Books

 

  DOWNLOAD THE FULL TEXT OF THE CHAPTER IN THE PDF FORMAT

Korotayev, A., A. Malkov, and D. Khaltourina. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: KomKniga/URSS, 2006. P. 37–46.

Chapter 1

 

Secular Cycles

 

  DOWNLOAD THE FULL TEXT OF THE CHAPTER IN THE PDF FORMAT

We believe that one of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demo­graphic cycles as a basic feature of complex agrarian systems' dynamics.[1]

The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history of Europe and China has been known for quite a long time (e.g., Postan 1950, 1973; Abel 1974, 1980; Le Roy Ladurie 1974; Hodder 1978; Braudel 1973; Chao 1986; Cameron 1989; Goldstone 1991; Kul'pin 1990; Mugruzin 1986, 1994 etc.), and already in the 1980s more or less developed mathematical models of demographic cycles started to be produced (first of all for Chinese "dynastic cycles") (Usher 1989). At the moment we have a very considerable number of such models (Chu and Lee 1994; Nefedov 1999e, 2002a; 2004; S. Malkov, Kovalev, and A. Malkov 2000; S. Malkov and A. Malkov 2000; Malkov and Sergeev 2002, 2004a, 2004b; Malkov et al. 2002; Malkov 2002, 2003, 2004; Turchin 2003, 2005a).[2]

               Recently the most important contributions to the development of the mathematical models of demographic cycles have been made by Sergey Nefedov, Peter Turchin and Sergey Malkov. What is important is that on the basis of their models Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov have managed to demonstrate that demographic cycles were a basic feature of complex agrarian systems (and not a specifically Chinese, or European phenomenon).

Nefedov (2004) starts with the population model developed by Raymond Pearl (1926) and described by the logistic equation suggested by Verhulst (Verhulst 1838; see also, e.g., Riznichenko 2002; Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006):

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[1] As these cycles are of an order of 1–2 centuries, it was suggested by Turchin (2003, 2005b) to denote them as "secular cycles". We would also like to acknowledge that it also was Peter Turchin who in October 2002 suggested to us to denote the macrotrends we are dealing with in this Introduction to Social Macrodynamics as "millennial trends".

[2] There are also a rather large number of pre-industrial population-economy dynamic models designed to account for "the escape from Malthusian Trap", rather than for the structure of pre-industrial population cycles (Artzrouni and Komlos 1985; Steinmann and Komlos 1988; Komlos and Artzrouni 1990; Steinmann, Prskawetz, and Feichtinger 1998; Wood 1998; Kögel and Prskawetz 2001).

 

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