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Главная arrow English arrow Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis
Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis Версия в формате PDF 
Написал AK   
04.04.2011

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Egyptian Revolution:

A Demographic Structural Analysis

Andrey V. Korotayev, Russian State University for the Humanities

Julia V. Zinkina, Russian Academy of Sciences

File:Day of Anger marchers in street.jpg

The "Day of Revolt" on 25 January 

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Abstract: It is not surprising that Mubarak’s administration “overlooked” the social explosion. Indeed, statistical data righteously claimed that the country was developing very successfully. Economic growth rates were high (even in the crisis years). Poverty and inequality levels were among the lowest in the Third World. Global food prices were rising, but the government was taking serious measures to mitigate their effect on the poorest layers of the population. Unemployment level (in per cent) was less than in many developed countries of the world and, moreover, was declining, and so were population growth rates. What would be the grounds to expect a full-scale social explosion? Of course, the administration had a sort of reliable information on the presence of certain groups of dissident “bloggers”, but how could one expect that they would be able to inspire to go to the Tahrir any great masses of people? It was even more difficult to figure out that Mubarak’s regime would be painfully struck by its own modernization successes of the 1980s, which led to the sharp decline of crude death rate and especially of infant and child mortality in 1975–1990. Without these successes many young Egyptians vehemently demanding Mubarak’s resignation (or even death) would have been destined to die in early childhood and simply would not have survived to come out to the Tahrir Square.

 

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SOURCES: Entelequia. Revista Interdisciplinar 13 (2011): 139-169; Middle East Studies Online Journal- ISSN 2109-9618- Issue n°5. Volume 2 (2011): 57-95.

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Highlighting the events of Egyptian Revolution 2011, various massmedia tried to explain what had caused the riots. Most explanations followed the same pattern, blaming economic stagnation, poverty, inequality, corruption and unemployment. A typical explanation is that “Egyptians have the same complaints that drove Tunisians onto the streets: surging food prices, poverty, unemployment and authoritarian rule that smothers public protests quickly and often brutally”. Such unanimity incited us to investigate to what extent those accusations reflected the Egyptian reality.

So we decided to take each of the above mentioned “revolution causes” and to look into the actual dynamics of the relevant socioeconomic indicators in the years preceding the Egyptian revolution.

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